I’m writing this on Thursday, February 24, 2022, in the midst of the Russian military actions in Ukraine. This is the context of what I’m saying today. Specifically, I’m addressing the price of gold (per ounce, denominated in USD).Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe harbor in very bad situations. Gold is a store of value that’s not easily manipulated by government authorities. It’s also a diffuse indicator, fueled by literally millions of people around the world trading in gold. Some of these players are small traders (often individuals and small businesses) and some as large as multinational banks. As such, when something really terrible is occurring, the price of gold will rise rapidly and a lot. But it didn’t do that today. Gold closed official trading today at $1,924.40 per ounce, up $16.85. If you don’t follow the markets closely, that might sound like a big increase. It’s not. It’s less than a 1% increase in price. To put that price in perspective, that’s a completely normal price change in a day. (Let me say right up front that any war is terrible. Any war. Even wars that have a justification, such as one in response to an invasion. Because the ones who suffer the most from a war are the most helpless: small children, the elderly, and the handicapped. In the 20th century, we became very good with the thought of going to war. That was a mistake).But today, the gold markets told us that, as bad as this would be to the people of Ukraine, it was not the doomsday scenario that was painted this morning. US stock market futures were way down before the markets opened and the actual prices of stocks were down easily over 2% this morning. But the stock markets are far more prone to hysteria and crowd sentiment, while gold is a little more boring, which makes it a good indication about the gravity of a situation.So look at gold prices when you’re worried that something big is happening. It’s not an infallible indicator, but it’s probably the best bet you’ve got, and it’s easy to find out.